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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP