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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model