Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(13:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to CIN 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 28 for 5 yards (14-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model