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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to CIN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for -4 yards (57-L.Alexander; 58-M.Milano). PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. {Erickson credited with 0 yard return due to the penalty occurring behind where the kick was received}

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -3.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model