Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

(11:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to CIN 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for -1 yards (26-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.20 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model