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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 24 for 40 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on CIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at CIN 24. {penalty called as official ran into personnel off the Bengals bench}

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model