Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to CIN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 14. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model