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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for 1 yard (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model