Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 10 – Detroit Lions 10

(6:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 37 for 6 yards (19-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.53 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model