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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 12

Detroit Lions 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model