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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 24 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model