4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 27 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP