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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 51
Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 27
What Actually Happened
(3:18) 34-Z.Zenner left tackle to DET 45 for -4 yards (90-J.Peppers).
The Three Options
GO
+1.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK
-1.31 EP
- 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 71% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
