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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 27 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.70 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model