Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 27 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Penalty on DET-10-J.Abbrederis, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.85 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 90, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model