Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 76

Detroit Lions 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

(7:02) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to CAR 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 13 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model