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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 12 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP