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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 22 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 59 yards to DAL 13, Center-59-T.Pepper. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 12 for -1 yards (83-J.Janis). Injury update: Chidobe Awuzie has a hamstring injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.22 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP