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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 47

Chicago Bears 2 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model