4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 2 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to MIN 11, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 14 yards (93-S.Acho; 46-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP