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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 2

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP