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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 40

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model