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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.49 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model