4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CHI 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.84 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model