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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 51

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 21 for 8 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 47-D.Bass).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model