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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 5-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model