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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model