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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 60 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 13 yards (52-J.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model