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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 70

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model