Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-23-N.Thorpe at LA 30. 23-N.Thorpe to LA 30 for no gain (36-D.Hatfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.70 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model