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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model