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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model