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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model