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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP