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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP