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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 5

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP