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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 58 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 26 for 13 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP