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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-51-K.Correa.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model