4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model