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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 48

Chicago Bears 10 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to BAL 16, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model