Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Chicago Bears 10

(9:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to CHI 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 21 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.19 EP
56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model