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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to CHI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 21 for 16 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 99-M.Judon).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model