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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(11:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model