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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 76

Chicago Bears 24 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.34 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model