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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 25 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 99-M.Judon).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model