Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(1:57) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model