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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 90

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to CHI 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 35 for -1 yards (13-C.Matthews).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model