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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model