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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at GB 49 for -6 yards (97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model