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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to GB 4, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.77 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP